Renewal risk
Renewal risk is the assessed likelihood that a customer will not renew, or will renew at lower value, when the contract comes up.
In practice
Renewal risk turns health signals into a commercial forecast. Found early, it leaves time to act; found at the renewal date, it can only be recorded as churn.
Review every renewal due in the next two to three quarters, rate the risk with written reasons (usage decline, champion left, unresolved escalations, budget change), and give each at-risk account an owner and a dated plan. Compare ratings with renewal outcomes to improve the next forecast.