Weighted pipeline

Weighted pipeline discounts early-stage deals, so it reads closer to an expected outcome than raw pipeline does. It is a planning aid, and only as accurate as the stage probabilities and stage definitions behind it; one large late-stage deal can still dominate it.

Weighted pipeline = Σ (opportunity amount × stage probability). Base the probabilities on your own historical stage-to-close conversion rather than defaults, refresh them each quarter, and compare the weighted figure with actual results to check its calibration.